We've already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."
To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.
The goal is to catch the strongest names while they're small and still have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climbs the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge. We're looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap land!
Let's dive into this week's report and see what's happening in some of the hottest stocks in the Minor Leagues.
While the primary uptrend remains intact, small-caps haven't made any progress...
Key Takeaway: Recent laggards bounce into lead. Economic reports add noise to an otherwise quiet week. New highs for Value Line Geometric Index and Commodities would help confirm cyclical strength.
The Financials sector bounced back in the rankings last week, climbing three spots and moving into the second spot overall. Strength within the sector is broadly based as it is at the top of the rankings from an equal-weight perspective.
Thanks to FB and GOOGL, the Communication Services sector is in the top spot on a cap-weight basis. On an equal-weight basis it ranks below everything except Consumer Staples.
At the large-cap level, Transports are near the bottom of our industry group rankings. Mid-caps however, are showing strength and small-caps are improving.
Steve Strazza and I were chatting this morning shortly after the market opened, looking for trading opportunities.
We were scanning the list of stocks we've been watching and one thing that is plain to see is the stocks that are working are really working. And if we're not in them already, there's no real sense in chasing them here.
My line to him was: "It's August 30th. S&P 500 is all-time highs. You're either already long or you're in cash. There's nothing else to do here but take a walk." He agreed.
So with this in mind, I don't have a new trade idea for us today. But I'll leave you with this...
Here's why this "compression" is important to pay attention to:
As markets become more coiled, buyers or sellers are ultimately forced to front up. This period of shrinking volatility is often met with violent unwinds – in either direction.
So when we see these periods of notable reductions in volatility, pay attention because the resolution often sets the tone for weeks and months to come.
Fast forward to today, we're seeing the same setup take place.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Whipsaws Around The World
One of the most common characteristics of choppy markets are whipsaws. The chart below is a great example of this kind of price action, and we’re seeing it all over the place of late. Many risk assets recently violated key levels of support, but ultimately repaired the damage and reclaimed them. This type of action continues to reiterate that while the market is bending, it’s not breaking. The list of new lows in our internal breadth metrics remains muted, and critical indices and commodities, such as Energy, continue to hold their heads above important levels.
There’s an old adage that “from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction." Is this what could spark the next leg higher for the market? Time will certainly tell, but it’s leaning in that direction, at least in the near term.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the action from a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
Our Macro universe performance was positive across the board this week, as 81% of our list closed higher with a median return of 1.57%.
The biggest winner of the week was Oil $CL, which gained 10.30%.
Meanwhile, the week's worst performer was the Volatility Index $VIX, which fell by -11.69%.
Several US Large-Cap indices finished the week at all-time highs.
"JC, are there any books you recommend for someone trying to learn more about Technical Analysis?"
The answer is yes. Of course.
The thing is, back in the day when I was studying for my CMT exams, there wasn't a well-defined curriculum like there is today. This was back in 2006. They would just give us a list of books to read and wish us the best of luck!
I really enjoyed that, actually. To this day I still tell people to go through the curriculum like they ask you to, but then go back and read the books too!
Now, if I had to do it all over again today, this is what I would do:
This week we’re looking at a long setup in the IT Sector. IT is trading at all-time highs, and displaying the strength you'd like to see at an index as well as a stock level.
Let's take a look at the trade idea this time around.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.