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The Minor Leaguers (08-30-2021)

August 30, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.

The goal is to catch the strongest names while they're small and still have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climbs the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge. We're looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap land!

Let's dive into this week's report and see what's happening in some of the hottest stocks in the Minor Leagues.

While the primary uptrend remains intact, small-caps haven't made any progress...

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

August 30, 2021

Key Takeaway: Recent laggards bounce into lead. Economic reports add noise to an otherwise quiet week. New highs for Value Line Geometric Index and Commodities would help confirm cyclical strength.

  • The Financials sector bounced back in the rankings last week, climbing three spots and moving into the second spot overall. Strength within the sector is broadly based as it is at the top of the rankings from an equal-weight perspective.
  • Thanks to FB and GOOGL, the Communication Services sector is in the top spot on a cap-weight basis. On an equal-weight basis it ranks below everything except Consumer Staples.
  • At the large-cap level, Transports are near the bottom of our industry group rankings. Mid-caps however, are showing strength and small-caps are improving. 
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[Options Premium] This is Not the Time to Force It

August 30, 2021

Steve Strazza and I were chatting this morning shortly after the market opened, looking for trading opportunities.

We were scanning the list of stocks we've been watching and one thing that is plain to see is the stocks that are working are really working. And if we're not in them already, there's no real sense in chasing them here.

My line to him was: "It's August 30th. S&P 500 is all-time highs. You're either already long or you're in cash. There's nothing else to do here but take a walk." He agreed.

So with this in mind, I don't have a new trade idea for us today. But I'll leave you with this...

Tight as a Tiger

August 30, 2021

It's sure getting tight out there...

There's an old adage that from compression comes expansion.

We saw this exact development take place a month ago before Bitcoin's face ripper of a rally.

Here's why this "compression" is important to pay attention to:

As markets become more coiled, buyers or sellers are ultimately forced to front up. This period of shrinking volatility is often met with violent unwinds – in either direction.

So when we see these periods of notable reductions in volatility, pay attention because the resolution often sets the tone for weeks and months to come.

Fast forward to today, we're seeing the same setup take place.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

August 29, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Whipsaws Around The World

One of the most common characteristics of choppy markets are whipsaws. The chart below is a great example of this kind of price action, and we’re seeing it all over the place of late. Many risk assets recently violated key levels of support, but ultimately repaired the damage and reclaimed them. This type of action continues to reiterate that while the market is bending, it’s not breaking. The list of new lows in our internal breadth metrics remains muted, and critical indices and commodities, such as Energy, continue to hold their heads above important levels.

There’s an old adage that “from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction." Is this what could spark the next leg higher for the market? Time will certainly tell, but it’s leaning in that direction, at least in the near term.

...

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

August 29, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the action from a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:
  • Our Macro universe performance was positive across the board this week, as 81% of our list closed higher with a median return of 1.57%.
  • The biggest winner of the week was Oil $CL, which gained 10.30%.
  • Meanwhile, the week's worst performer was the Volatility Index $VIX, which fell by -11.69%.
  • Several US Large-Cap indices finished the week at all-time highs.
  • Oil $CL posted a bullish reversal week.
  • Only about half...

Which Books Should I Read To Learn More About Technical Analysis?

August 29, 2021

This is one I get asked about all the time.

"JC, are there any books you recommend for someone trying to learn more about Technical Analysis?"

The answer is yes. Of course.

The thing is, back in the day when I was studying for my CMT exams, there wasn't a well-defined curriculum like there is today. This was back in 2006. They would just give us a list of books to read and wish us the best of luck!

I really enjoyed that, actually. To this day I still tell people to go through the curriculum like they ask you to, but then go back and read the books too!

Now, if I had to do it all over again today, this is what I would do:

[Premium] Trade Of The Week

August 29, 2021

This week we’re looking at a long setup in the IT Sector. IT is trading at all-time highs, and displaying the strength you'd like to see at an index as well as a stock level.

Let's take a look at the trade idea this time around.

What Type Of Environment Is This?

August 28, 2021

When Consumer Staples are underperforming, what type of environment are normally in?

Staples are making new multi-decade lows relative to the S&P500 and flirting with a catastrophic breakdown relative to Consumer Discretionary stocks:

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Last Week In August

August 28, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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Commodities Weekly: Something You Oat to Know

August 27, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Pockets of strength continue to emerge within commodities.

This could be hard for some to believe when we see things like energy chopping beneath overhead supply.

Or the fact that precious metals persist in slumming it as some of the worst-performing assets on the planet.

But this is a diverse asset class with plenty of bright spots that suggest strength and support our thesis of a new commodities supercycle.

We’ve recently covered breakouts in Sugar and Feeder Cattle that are both still in play.

Even some of the laggards, like Silver and Lumber, recently defended critical areas of support.

This week, it was impossible to miss the chart of Oat futures. Let’s have a look!

Here’s a weekly chart of Oats:...