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Financials In Focus

August 13, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Financials have made quite the comeback in recent weeks, with the Large-Cap Financial SPDR $XLF trading back to record highs as bank stocks around the world have fought to repair some of the damage endured during Q2.

We even saw regional banks break back above a major level of interest last week. The importance of this can't be overstated.

But that's just the US. What are financials doing in the rest of the world? Are they confirming this strength we're seeing from the US?

In this post, we’ll provide an in-depth rundown of what’s going on with this critically important sector--not just in the US, but around the globe.

Let’s kick things off with last week’s mystery chart. As always, thanks to everyone who participated.

We asked whether the recent highs were a false start or a failed breakout. The answers were skewed in favor of the bulls, as most of you said it was merely a retest of the previous highs. And it looks like you were right!

Here it is... the S&P Global Financials Index $IXG:

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How's the market done in 2021?

August 13, 2021

How's the market done in 2021?

That's a tough one to answer.

And I'll tell you why.

January was still what most of 2020 was like. The environment isn't going to change based on the calendar year. It's going to do what it wants.

All Star Charts Crypto

Is the Alt Season Emerging?

August 12, 2021

In the world of crypto, there's one overarching relative theme that governs the entire asset class.

That is, Bitcoin vs everything else.

Over the years, this simple trend has dominated the asset class for so long. Due to the sheer size of Bitcoin compared to the others, when it's in a leadership position, it scoops up so much capital that most of the other coins are forced to wait for their turn.

Could this change?

It would only make sense, especially as the market-caps of the other altcoins grow.

But as we said in yesterday's note, all we can do is look at what's in front of us, right now.

That is, this relationship is still the single most important relative trend for crypto traders to pay attention to.

We've talked in great lengths about this dynamic before, and the various way to visualize it.

The Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio, for instance, serves as a...

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

August 11, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Sentiment continues to argue a case for caution. Pessimism remains near historical lows. Nasdaq trading volume dwindles along with risk-seeking behavior. And with the economic surprise index slipping below zero, better than expected economic data no longer provides a tailwind. Yet, pockets of strength remain (including the earnings revision trend) and optimism has ticked higher across our sentiment indicators. Active investment managers have increased their exposure, throwing caution to the wind during a seasonally challenging period. All this does not lessen the real risks associated with the lopsided sentiment that tilts toward extended optimism.

 

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Analysts Still Playing Catch Up

The earnings revision uptrend has slowed its ascent in recent weeks, but it continues to move higher. Overall earnings expectations for 2021 have risen by nearly 20% since the beginning of...

[Video] BNN Bloomberg: Base Metals, Precious Metals and Energy

August 11, 2021

Whenever Frances calls to chat about the market, she knows she's getting a yes!

Frances Horodelski and I have been doing this for about a decade, through multiple cycles. It's always fun!

She was hosting a commodities-focused show today so we discussed Metals and Energy.

I think there is a lot going on in this space and it's setting up for a big move.

We couldn't help but talk Financials and Crypto, but it was mostly Commodities.

Hope you enjoy!

Soar Like an Eagle

August 11, 2021

The latest Follow the Flow report is out, and as always there is a play therein that caught my attention.

It's a bullish idea, but I'm going to play this one in a unique way in order to hedge myself a bit in a tape that feels a little sluggish at the moment. I want to get paid to wait out the slow times we're likely to "enjoy" from now until Labor Day weekend, and possibly beyond. So this will involve a calendar spread, but with a twist...