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"The Longer The Need For Repair"

April 20, 2020

Most of what you'll hear me talk about are things I've learned from other people. In some cases, they were predecessors of mine and in other cases they're buddies and colleagues. It's funny because I try to do a good job of giving credit when I can, where I remember specifically who I learned something from. You guys who have been following me for a long time know that about me. But the truth is that sometimes I simply forget where I learned it. It's just part of my arsenal and I always assumed it was there.

The best part about this is that sometimes, when I'm lucky, I come to realize down the road where I learned certain things. For example, I was in Chicago last year or maybe the year before that, I forget, and had lunch with Jim Bianco. Of course we can't help ourselves but talk markets so we dive into a heavy bond market conversation (I know you must be shocked if you know Jim that he's arguing about rates lol). Anyway, he proceeds to rip through 20-30 charts in what felt like a matter of seconds. It hit me! THAT is why I rip through so many charts when I give...

Crude Oil & Interest Rates Keep Crashing

April 20, 2020

This is an intermarket world that we live in. If you think what happens in the commodities and bond market isn't directly tied with what's also happening in the stock market, you've got a lot of homework to do.

You guys who have been following around along time know that we start out every single conversation about the stock market with, "Okay, what are bonds and commodities doing". It starts there. And then we go into the asset in question.

Look at Crude Oil still crashing down to new multi-decade lows:

"The Longer The Need For Repair"

April 19, 2020

Most of what you'll hear me talk about are things I've learned from other people. In some cases, they were predecessors of mine and in other cases they're buddies and colleagues. It's funny because I try to do a good job of giving credit when I can, where I remember specifically who I learned something from. You guys who have been following me for a long time know that about me. But the truth is that sometimes I simply forget where I learned it. It's just part of my arsenal and I always assumed it was there.

The best part about this is that sometimes, when I'm lucky, I come to realize down the road where I learned certain things. For example, I was in Chicago last year or maybe the year before that, I forget, and had lunch with Jim Bianco. Of course we can't help ourselves but talk markets so we dive into a heavy bond market conversation (I know you must be shocked if you know Jim that he's arguing about rates lol). Anyway, he proceeds to rip through 20-30 charts in what felt like a matter of seconds. It hit me! THAT is why I rip through so many charts when I give...

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Weekly Performance Recap (04-17-2020)

April 19, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

As this is something we do internally on a daily basis, we believe sharing it with clients will add value and help them better understand our top-down approach. We use these tables to provide insight into both relative strength and market internals.

This week we want to highlight our US Equity Index and Industry tables as they illustrate an important resumption in leadership from the market's most resilient areas.

Click on table to enlarge view.

After some mean reversion last week, the trend in Nasdaq outperformance and small-cap underperformance reasserted itself this week as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was up 7%...

Nasdaq Strength: The Stock, Not The Index

April 18, 2020

The joke around our virtual office this morning was that the nasdaq is not just strong as an index, the stock itself really stands out!

The exchanges and "marketplaces" are really shining. The relative strength compared to many other sectors and industry groups is off the charts (see what I did there?)

Take a look at names like CME Group, Market Access and Tradeweb. These names keep popping up on our relative strength scans, especially compared to other types of "financials". But let's be serious, these are tech stocks.

This is the chart of the Nasdaq that has our attention:

MAGA-Cap Stocks Continue To Lead

April 17, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Thanks to everyone for participating in this week’s Mystery Chart. The responses were pretty mixed with most wanting to do nothing for now and wait for a retest of the recent highs or lows before taking action.

While it's hard not to like this uptrend over the long-term, doing nothing in the near-term is more or less the camp we're in as well.

With that as our backdrop let's discuss why this chart is important and on our radar right now.

This is a daily line chart of the All Star Charts Custom MAGA Index, which is an equally weighted index of the four largest stocks in the US Equity Market, measured by market capitalization.

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[Options Premium] Getting Short the Russell

April 17, 2020

Since I've got a little positive delta building in my portfolio and I'm leaning towards the market feeling a bit overextended here, I'm adding a little negative delta in an index to help balance the risks in my portfolio a bit.

And of course, it makes the most sense to get short the weakest (in relative terms) index to express this hedge.

 

 

 

 

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The Weakest Stocks With Well-Defined Risk

April 16, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Today, we put out a post outlining why we are bearish on Small-Cap stocks and want to be shorting the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Read it here as it sets the stage for this post.

Small-caps are the weakest area of US Equities. That's why we are expressing our bearish view on stocks via the Russell 2000 as opposed to one of the large-cap indexes, all of which the Russell has severely underperformed for several years now.

In line with our top-down approach, we don't just want to short an index. We are believers that playing the averages results in average returns.

For this reason, we've drilled into the Russell 2000, looked at every single chart and picked out the weakest names we could find with clearly defined risk management levels to limit us to the smallest of losses in the case these names mean-revert higher.

All Star Interviews Season 3, Episode 20: Adam Koos, Founder of Libertas Wealth Management Group

April 16, 2020

Adam Koos is a portfolio manager who uses Technical Analysis to make decisions for the clients he advises. In times like these, Financial Advisors all over the world are getting asked the hard questions. In this episode, Adam talks about how Technical Analysis has helped both his decision making and the communication with the families he works for. It's really cool to see these tools helping advisors everywhere, and especially a friend who I speak to regularly about markets and other common interests, like sports and wine.

Adam and I were coincidentally both featured in a Wall Street Journal article this week where we shared some of our favorite tools to help us in the current environment. He is the Founder of...