When it comes to strategies, I've noticed that some investors try to force their approach on to the market, even if we're not in the type of environment where that strategy works. The first thing we want to do is identify what type of environment we're in, so that we can then create strategies to try and profit from it. To think we can build a system for a future environment that doesn't exist yet is foolish.
When it comes to buying stocks, I'm a bigger fan of buying things that are already working rather than getting cute and trying to be the first one in hoping others agree with me quickly. Rarely does bottom fishing work out in our favor. The probabilities are against us from the start.
One way to see if something is already "working" is to recognize how it is behaving compared to its peers. In the case of U.S. Stocks, how are specific groups doing compared to the rest of the market? I like to think of it like holding a basketball in a pool under water. You can feel the pressure, similar to overall selling pressure in stocks. Once you let go, the ball explodes out of the water and into the air. Stocks behave the same way once the overwhelming selling is complete.
Many of the sectors which formed the most beautiful bases during the recent stock market correction reside in the medical devices, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals sectors. Stocks here didn't plunge as deep as most, they found firm footing quickly, and are now showing signs of moving higher again. One such play has us very interested from a risk versus potential reward standpoint.
Our boy Bruni did a deep dive into the Cybersecurity space recently and served up a bunch of names that are setting up well to lead the market higher. Importantly, earnings are on the horizon which offers both an opportunity for a positive catalyst, as well as the need to tread carefully if the sector disappoints. We've got a plan for that...
Tuesday we posted a mystery chart and asked you all to let us know what you would do. Buy, sell, or do nothing?
The majority of responses had a bearish bias, however, a few suggested buying the "failed breakdown" with a tight stop, and even fewer said wait it out. Both sides could prove to be right depending on the timeframe, but it's clear the mixed signals make it tough to have conviction.
Let's get into the real chart and why we feel it's relevant.
I'm in Vancouver for a few days. While I'm here, I need to meet with Gold Bugs and ski Whistler. That's what you do around here right? I'm good with both.
It's hard to have a serious conversation with the true yellow metal cult followers. These clowns are bullish at all times and have been expecting Gold to make a huge move every day since their last big move that ended in 2011. "This is it", I've been hearing for years. But Nope. Not only have they not made any money, but the opportunity cost (what else could they have done with that cash) is through the roof. It's been painful to watch them.
For our purposes, open minded investors, in other words, we don't care if Gold doubles or goes to zero. We could not care less. Our jobs aren't dependent on them. Our "investment strategy" is not tied to rising prices for precious metals and since we don't have "a narrative", we don't need to make things up to justify our existence.
We want to be buying things that are going up and selling things going down. It may sound oversimplified, but that's just the truth. Securities trend. There is a much higher likelihood for a trend to continue than for...
We've all heard about Japanese Candlesticks, but how can they help us? While line charts and bar charts each have their roles in our process, Candlesticks really tell the best story of them all. I've seen many different ways in which these tools are used, so in this short video I explain how we incorporate candlesticks in our every day analysis.
The third new trade we teased during our most recent All Star Options conference call has rewarded our patience, offering us a better entry point. And we're gonna lean into this one...
John Roque is a Technical Analyst who I've looked up to since early in my career. From the bottom of my heart, it was guys like him who inspired me to analyze the behavior of markets and do it in a way that is unique to me. I've always enjoyed his comparisons between markets and sports. While on the sell side, John was consistently ranked among the top analysts before joining the buy side, including Soros Fund Management. In this conversation, we discuss everything from Ted Williams to Corn Futures. He gives us his thoughts on Gold, Crude Oil, Interest Rates and the combined market-caps of Financials & Technology sectors. This was a real honor for me to get to interview one of my favorite...
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.
The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.
The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?