From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

With the latest surge, the S&P 500 has experienced 17 Momentum Thrusts since 1980. Excluding the signal from earlier this week, eight of these have been accompanied by Breadth Thrusts and eight...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

While many started to pay attention to the potential for equity market weakness well after the S&P 500 peaked back in January, a look beneath the surface showed that trouble had been brewing for a...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We got a breadth thrust this week as the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making new 20-day highs edged above 55% on Thursday. This might not be the most well-known of the various breadth thrusts, but...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks have rallied off of their mid-June lows, but it goes without saying that 2022 has still been a year marked by volatility and an absence of strength. In fact it has been historic (or nearly so)...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 index is 20% off its early 2022 high, but remains nearly 14% above its pre-COVID peak. The median stock in the index, however, is now trading just below its pre-COVID high. The last...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The June employment report shows a labor market that remains on relatively firm footing. Nonfarm payrolls were up more than expected in the month, though this was partially offset by downward...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

June asset allocation data from the AAII suggests that investors are beginning to act on their emotions. It’s not uncommon for sentiment to lead and positioning to lag, but the gap between the two had...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This is a good time to think about what could happen after the midterms because the run-up to this fall’s elections could be almost unbearable. The Fed, the Supreme Court and lingering fights over the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Not sure where I first heard it, but I’ve always loved this saying: “Bull markets take you to levels you never thought you would see. Bear markets take you to levels you never thought you would see...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The March 2021 CPI data (released in April of last year) showed the largest monthly increase in the prices in over a decade. The 2.7% yearly change in the CPI at that point was dismissed as being due...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

That this is an unfamiliar and uncomfortable environment for many investors goes without saying. It was unforeseen to the extent that it is at odds with recent experience. For passive investors, the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

In a year marked by broad weakness in both stocks and bonds, commodity strength has provided some portfolio ballast for those who have been willing and able to expand their asset allocation...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 has now declined for seven consecutive weeks and on Friday passed the 20% pullback threshold (and on cue “Bear Market” headlines sprouted like dandelions in Spring). This is the index...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The preliminary May reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index (published by the University of Michigan) dropped to one of its lowest levels on record. The Expectations component is still above its...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Our weight of the evidence dashboard argues for caution, as risk outweighs opportunity. This is echoed by...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

One of the refrains I heard coming into 2022 was that, given inflation, holding cash was an expensive proposition. It is true that over the past year, inflation has eaten away 8.5% of the real...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Fed was all over the news this week, going out of its way to telegraph to the market its intention to pursue an accelerated pace of rate hikes. Fed funds futures seem to be getting the message. A...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We discussed the need to look beneath the surface of the market in our Weekly Townhall and I  mentioned it again on the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There is still one week to go before it ends, but Q1 2022 has been a remarkable quarter in many respects. If this year has taught us anything, it’s that a lot could change between now and when the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The FOMC meeting is out of the way and the quiet period for Fed speakers that preceded it has ended. We are now getting a barrage of “how we got it wrong” inflation retrospectives and “how we can get...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks attempted to rally this week. Following Tuesday’s abortive attempt to regain the considerable ground lost on Monday, the S&P 500 posted its best daily gain since 2020 on Wednesday (+2.65)....

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Bond market moves are getting plenty of attention this week. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to levels not seen since the opening trading sessions of 2022 and German yields have dipped back into...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It was certainly a busy week filled with volatility-inducing headlines that produced sharp sell-offs and stunning reversals. And all in just four trading days. Stepping back from the noise, it can be...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There are plenty of ways in which we make our lives more complicated. There’s an endless list of things we could look at that would obscure our perspective. If I’ve learned anything in nearly a...