From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There are no magic indicators that are right 100% of the time, no silver bullets, no “one Ring to rule them all.” That’s why we spend so much time talking about weighing the evidence and looking at...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

By looking at various ratios relative to where they have been over the past year, we get a sense of investor risk appetite from an intermarket perspective. The pairwise comparisons in our risk off -...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There was plenty of focus on the Fed this week - not so much for what they did (which was nothing), but for what they said. After a benign written statement, Fed Chair Powell took to the podium at his...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

When it comes to portfolio management, asset allocation matters. For many the starting point of this discussion of dividing assets between stocks and bonds. This leads to the often talked about 60/40...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Two weeks into 2022 and EEM (Emerging Markets) has a 500 basis point YTD lead over SPY (S&P 500). Emerging markets are up more than 2% and the S&P 500 is down more than 2%. Short-term charts...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The stock market’s reaction to this week’s sharp rise in bond yields has intensified talk of a durable shift in long-term equity leadership, within the US as well as on a global basis. That discussion...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Fed is turning off the liquidity spigot and expects to start raising interest rates next year. There are plenty of historical studies showing the relatively benign impact of the first one or two...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This idea came up in passing in our ASC+Plus weekly Townhall yesterday. The messy action in Copper looks a whole lot like the messy action in Berkshire Hathaway. After peaking in Q2 both have moved...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

While the Fed may be newly focused on inflation, the bond market does not appear to be similarly inclined. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds this week has undercut its summer lows near 1.80% and the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It’s no secret that we’ve been looking for evidence of improving breadth that would support last month’s breakouts in the small-cap and mid-cap indexes and provide fuel for a rally into the first...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I’m no crypto expert - I don’t even play one on TV. But every week seems to bring a new story about ways in which cryptocurrencies will not only stick around but see wider usage in the economy and as...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We’ve been on the lookout for evidence of breadth improvement and the new high lists this week have given us plenty of it. The 63-day (3-month) new high lists for small-caps and mid-caps have heated...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Plenty of time is wasted and much virtual ink is spilled pulling apart and putting back together various pronouncements by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. With an FOMC meeting on tap,...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Federal Reserve officials have talked about the benefit from having well-anchored inflation expectations. It provides flexibility in setting policy even as recent inflation readings have moved to...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

If there is something to know about me when it comes to the market, it’s this: When I have a chance to talk about the Value Line Geometric Index, I don’t let it pass. The Value Line index is still a...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We like to say that dollars flow to where they are treated best. If that is the case, commodities could soon see a surge of inflows. The DBC/AGG ratio shows commodities surging to new multi-year highs...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Index-level volatility picked up in September and by month-end the S&P 500 has experienced its first 5% drawdown in nearly a year. Beneath the surface, we’ve been seeing increasingly widespread...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The story this week was bond yields and the mounting evidence that they are ready to move higher. 10-year yields in the US and Germany have climbed to their highest levels since July. The US 10-year T...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

In 2021, every month except April has seen the S&P 500 testing its 50-day average. Only after the initial test in February did the index fall further below that average than it is doing in...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Despite government officials trying to explain it away, inflation is running at its highest levels in years or (in the case of producer prices) decades. For now, however, the bond market shows little...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

While what’s happening beneath the surface in US markets is a bit frustrating, we are seeing evidence of improving breadth on a global basis. Just shy of 75% of ACWI markets are trading above their 50-...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

On the heels of last week’s surprising drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, we are now seeing a similar decline in the Future Activity Index from the Philadelphia Fed. Just two...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Consumer Sentiment for August was expected to be little changed from where it was in July (81.2). The actual data (based on responses collected over the first half of the month) showed consumer...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It’s said that the most bullish thing stocks can do is go up. If something goes up enough, it starts to make new highs. Indexes like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, fueled by gains in a handful of...