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Key Takeaway: Positive earnings surprises and upward revisions have been setting records. Expectations are now elevated, and economic data is falling short. Macro...

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Market Notes

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Consumer Sentiment for August was expected to be little changed from where it was in July (81.2). The actual data (based on responses collected over the first half of the month) showed consumer...

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Observations

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Sentiment continues to argue a case for caution. Pessimism remains near historical lows. Nasdaq trading volume dwindles along with risk-seeking behavior. And with the...

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sentiment
Sentiment Report

Key Takeaway: Bond yields ready to move higher. Trends are still rising and inflation is proving persistent rather than transitory. Financials have been resilient but...

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Market Notes

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It’s said that the most bullish thing stocks can do is go up. If something goes up enough, it starts to make new highs. Indexes like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, fueled by gains in a handful of...

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Observations

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: A “no fear” attitude envelopes a market marred by mixed signals and deteriorating breadth. Large-cap indexes push to new highs while small and mid-caps trend lower. We...

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sentiment
Sentiment Report

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Optimism most likely peaked earlier this year, as options activity and equity exposure have continued to trend lower in recent months. Yet, our sentiment indicators show...

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Sentiment Report

Key Takeaway: Indexes at new highs as new high list contracts and new lows expand. Real bond yields drop to their lowest level on record. Prices are rising as the path...

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Market Notes

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5% on Monday and rebounded with a 1.5% gain on Tuesday. These were the 31st and 32nd daily moves of 1% or more so far in 2021. At this point last year, we had experienced 72...

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Observations

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It was a voicemail that any parent would dread…

Hello, this is the nurse from camp. Your son had an accident. He's fine but I need to talk to you… 

I quickly called back to get...

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From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: A diminishing appetite for risk combined with deteriorating breadth creates a backdrop conducive to equity indexes catching down to the weakness that has been on display...

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Sentiment Report

Key Takeaway: Despite being dismissed, bad breadth getting worse not better. Defensive groups asserting leadership as risk off trades gain strength. Indexes catching...

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Market Notes

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

A recurring theme when it has come to market breadth is that while it has not been keeping pace with the indexes, it has not been breaking down. That is starting to change. Net new highs have turned...

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Observations