Commodities are catching a serious bid right now.

Coffee futures have resolved a nearly 50-year base, printing fresh all-time highs.

Base and industrial metals keep screaming higher as the Chinese economy strengthens. 

This is all happening at a time when commodities are supposed to be strong.

We first began hedging our coffee addiction last summer, and boy, has it paid off.

In the five months since we first got long, the caffeine-packed bean has rallied over 50%. 

That's a massive move for a commodity in such a short amount of time!

But we think this one's just getting started and will likely surge higher for the foreseeable future.

We've been obnoxious about our natural gas trade recently, and we still think it has tremendous upside from the current level.

That's why we outlined the coal industry and our favorite miner last week.

But that's not all. We're also stalking the agricultural inputs industry, which is levered to the price of natural gas, for a breakout.

The coal industry is one of the most under-the-radar ponds to fish in.

Investors write it off because "clean energy" will displace the industry. While this is likely true, we think it will take far longer than most expect. 

In the meantime, this extreme mispositioning is our opportunity to profit.

You would have made a fortune if you bought these stocks at the depths of the COVID crash. Far more than if you purchased the hottest "work from home" stock.

These stocks had their best day in years last summer after a major Australian coal mine caught fire and halted production. 

While we haven't seen the upside follow-through we anticipated, the setup looks ripe for the bulls to take control.

Let's dive into the charts.

The commodity bears are going into hibernation.

Today was the best day in years for commodities relative to stocks and bonds. 

Inflation expectations are hitting a fresh 30-month high, with crude oil's price breaking out to 10-week highs.

We think this is the beginning of a much longer period of commodity outperformance.

A few weeks ago, we told you a big move in the energy markets was coming. We think this recent price action has marked the beginning of that move.

In addition, we outlined why we're buying copper futures last week, and so far, that trade has been a home run.

What's next?

Did you know China outperformed the United States stock market in 2024? We have the data.

We think this relative strength will persist, and if that's the case, don't forget about copper!

We discussed the long-term positive correlation between Chinese equities and copper futures a few months ago. 

Why does this relationship exist?

China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper and accounts for over 50% of global consumption. 

If one is going to work, so will the other.

More importantly, copper futures are testing a key level of interest:

Crude oil is setting up for a big move, and almost nobody is paying attention. In fact, sentiment in the energy trade couldn’t be more bearish right now. Everyone hates it, everyone. 

As Strazza said on our call yesterday, “Even Warren Buffett is losing money on this one.” That’s the vibe.

XLE keeps dropping, the bearish sentiment intensifies, yet producers are stepping in and buying. That’s a bullish signal if I’ve ever seen one.

Mr. Market keeps sending us inflationary signals. Have you noticed?

Last Friday, we talked about cattle futures potentially leading bond yields higher. 

Boy, was that the case this week as bond yields soared on the heels of an FOMC meeting.

We've also talked about a rotation into the energy sector, which has been in the penalty box for most of this bull market.

President-elect Donald Trump rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange this week, and it was reminiscent of the times when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush went to the NYSE years ago.

The infamous Reagan quote, "We're going to turn the bull loose," immediately came to mind.

Considering that, it seems appropriate to talk about bulls today because of their positive correlation to economic growth.

Live cattle futures and bond yields have danced together for decades:

The New York Stock Exchange held its annual Tree Lighting Event this week. It was spectacular, as always.

But we're not here to talk about pine trees or LED lights. We're here to talk about commodities.

The NYSE has an array of vehicles to trade, most being equities.

They also have several commodity funds, which happen to offer asymmetric risk versus reward opportunities at current levels. Let's talk about them.

Our first setup is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund $DBA:

My cousin wasn't asking me about crypto during this year's Thanksgiving feast. 

Instead, he wanted to know which commodity to buy after the historic cocoa trade.

Without hesitation, I told him, "coffee."

And I really believe that!

Let's talk about why.

Our Soft Commodity Index is testing a critical level of interest:

Last week, we identified a bullish momentum divergence in the commodities versus stocks ratio at a shelf of former lows.

The evidence suggests we're on the verge of a new era of commodity outperformance.

If we're right, it's time to prepare a list of our favorite setups to seize this opportunity.

We've already covered promising setups in uranium and solar.

Now, let's focus on oil and gas, and here's why: