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The Bellwether To Watch in Q1

January 4, 2025

It's a new year and the market is looking forward. 

It doesn't matter what happened last year, as far as our decisions are concerned. But let's not forget that humans are irrational, and they will certainly let the past year or two impact their decision making.

They can't help themselves. So it's up to us as traders and investors to extract those dollars for our own selfish reasons. 

We're here to make money. Period. Taking advantage of human flaws is a great way to do that, as I've been showing you here every day for over a decade. 

Yesterday we discussed the irrational behavior we're seeing from investors in the middle of a bull market. They're running scared, just as market breadth is improving to the upside, across multiple timeframes.

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Retail Investors Are Scared

January 3, 2025

The Retail Investors are scared to death. And that's a good thing.

We don't want individual investors too optimistic. That's when stocks sell off. It's when they're pessimistic and worried that you see the best forward returns.

Go back and see for yourself. It's all public information. These are the people we want to fade. This is the "Dumb" money, so to speak.

Dig this. The first sentiment data for the year just came out from the American Association of Individual Investors with the fewest number of bulls since April of last year.

In the middle of the bull market, they're crazy scared. 

Good.

Now keep in mind, this is specifically what they're saying

But what are they doing?

Well, the Put/Call Ratio just hit new 4-month highs. This means investors are buying insurance (Put options) at a much faster rate than they're betting on higher stock prices (Call options). 

That's also evidence that they're scared. Why else would you be buying insurance at such a fast rate?

Now, what else are they doing?

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(Commodities Weekly) Feeling Under The Weather? Go See Dr. Copper⚕️😷

January 3, 2025

Did you know China outperformed the United States stock market in 2024? We have the data.

We think this relative strength will persist, and if that's the case, don't forget about copper!

We discussed the long-term positive correlation between Chinese equities and copper futures a few months ago. 

Why does this relationship exist?

China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper and accounts for over 50% of global consumption. 

If one is going to work, so will the other.

More importantly, copper futures are testing a key level of interest:

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(Freshly Squeezed) Turbocharge Your Portfolio: A Zinc-Powered Short Squeeze 🍋🔋

January 3, 2025

The market seems ripe for a good short squeeze. Don't you think?

Despite many market participants questioning the robustness of the current bull market, the worst stocks in the world keep outperforming

These stocks will get blasted and dramatically underperform in a true bear market environment.

We're seeing the opposite.

So we've gone through our Freshly Squeezed universe, and one name stands out.

Eos Energy Enterprises $EOSE, a $1.2B battery stock.

It's sporting a 27% short interest and a 7x days-to-cover ratio.

When the short sellers overstay their welcome (as they have in this instance), we look for opportunities to take the other side. 

Why? The risk versus reward is skewed in our favor.

Here's how we're trading $EOSE:

 

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[Options Premium] Vertical Takeoff

January 3, 2025

Today's trade is in a stock who's price action is mimicking what their products delivers for its customers -- it's going vertical! How's that for kizmet?

That trade might classify as a "hard trade," but I'll be doing what I can to increase the odds of success in my favor.

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International Hall of Famers (01-03-2025)

January 3, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 1/3/25

January 3, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLB position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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ASC Mastermind Week 12: How To Find The Next $100 Billion Stock

Below is the 12th ASC Mastermind  Course. In this video, I dive answer a question that every new trader/investor wants to know: how do I find the next $100 Billion stock?

I get variations of this question every time I talk to young traders. "JC, how do I find the next NVIDIA?" Or "JC, how do you know which stocks are the best long-term plays?" Or my personal favorite, "JC, how can you buy this when it has such a high P/E ratio?"

Here's the deal. My answer to those latter two questions is this:  I'm most interested in stocks that are going up. And if a stock keeps going up, I will keep wanting to own it. Bar none. 

My answer to the first question is a little more nuanced. But there is an answer. And that's what this Mastermind is all about. We had this very question ourselves a few years ago, so we set out to reverse-engineer it. We made it so mathematically the next $100 Billion company HAS to come from this list.

Enjoy.