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Chart of the Day: Software Breaks Out!

August 6, 2022

Have you noticed that the worst stocks on the planet stopped going down?

Chinese Internet bottomed in March. We're in August.

Cathie Wood's ARKK Fund is making new 3-month highs. Biotech is making new 4-month highs.

And now here comes Software!

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The Downside Risk in Energy

August 5, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Energy futures are beginning to crack under pressure.

Crude oil and gasoline are breaking down to their lowest levels since February. And heating oil isn’t far behind, as it’s challenging the lower bounds of a similar distribution pattern.

It appears that the bears have finally come for energy.

Since we already laid out our short idea for crude oil futures in a recent post, today, our focus is on the energy sector and the implications these breakdowns carry for energy-related stocks.

Here’s a chart of the Energy Sector ETF $XLE:

When it comes to XLE, 80 is our level. It coincides with a shelf of former highs and an area of overwhelming supply. If it’s below those former highs, the energy sector represents downside risk and opportunity cost.

These are two things we do our best to avoid.

Remember, when we buy stocks, ETFs, or commodities, we prefer to buy high and sell higher. The idea is to buy...

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International Hall of Famers (08-05-2022)

August 5, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

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[Options Premium] The Vertex Vortex?

August 5, 2022

Earlier this week, we got stopped out of Vertex Pharma $VRTX for a manageable loss. It happens. Now today, a vortex is pulling us in the direction of another Vertex -- Vertex Energy $VTNR. Crazy, huh?

In the end, stocks are all just ticker symbols with dollar signs attached to them that convey any kind of meaning to us. But nonetheless, what are the odds?

Weird coincidences aside, we're liking the setup in this energy name so let's get right to it.

August Strategy Session - 3 Key Takeaways

August 5, 2022

At the beginning of every month, we tune out all the market noise and zoom out. We zoom out, because these calls that are held in the first week of the month, focus on monthly charts. So we're basically looking at long-term trends.

Our Monthly Strategy Session Call concluded early this week. Premium members can access the call recording here.

For non-premium members, don't worry- we haven't forgotten about you! You can check out our posts highlighting the top 3 charts that month, in posts like these!

Win-win?

Let's get right into it, shall we?

The Best Stock Market Ratio

August 5, 2022

If there is one intermarket relationship that every stock market investor should be following, it's got to be the Discretionary vs Staples ratio.

Consumer Discretionary stocks represent those areas where "Consumers" spend their "Discretionary" income. These include Autos, Retailers and Homebuilders, among other things.

Consumer Staples are the stuff consumers are going to buy and use regardless of how bad the economy might get. These are things like Laundry Detergent, Toothpaste, Beer, Chips and Soda.

When Discretionary stocks are outperforming Staples, that historically happens when stocks in general are doing well and the S&P500 is moving towards the upper right of the chart.

When stocks in general are under pressure, Staples tend to outperform, holding up better than most other stocks, especially Consumer Discretionaries.

It's probably the most important correlation for US Stock Market investors to be aware of.

...
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The Roadmap for Rates

August 4, 2022

From the Desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

It’s been an action-packed year for the bond market. Rates have ripped, and bonds have been in free fall worldwide. But US yields stopped going up in June. 

More recently, many European benchmark rates have turned lower in dramatic fashion.

Now the question is whether US yields will roll over and follow to the downside.

Instead of getting caught up in the Fed chatter and all its implications, let’s focus on the key levels we’re using as a roadmap for treasury markets in the coming weeks and months.

Here’s a triple-pane chart of the US 30-, 10-, and five-year yields:

All three are carving out potential tops just beneath their respective 2018 highs. You can see the tops in the chart above.

And those critical 2018 highs are highlighted below:

These prior-cycle highs are perfectly logical levels for the current uptrend...

Considerations for Using Market Breadth in Cryptocurrencies

August 4, 2022

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In yesterday's letter, we discussed in great detail the considerations when applying AVWAP analysis to cryptocurrencies.

You can click here to read that post.

Today, we're addressing yet another popular tool among technical analysts: market breadth. Put simply, this type of analysis lets us gauge the strength of underlying securities that compose an index or other broad group of assets.

The most common is the advance-decline line, which is used by investors to measure the number of individual stocks participating in a market trend. Using this data, analysts can get a heads-up on potential turning points in market rallies, as well as gain conviction through confirmation.

But breadth indicators can (and should) get a lot funkier.

We do a lot of market breadth analysis here at All Star Charts, primarily in the equities markets but also in foreign exchange and commodities. In crypto markets, our breadth coverage has been rather light.

So we're happy to announce we'll be conducting more of this research moving...