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The Long Repair Begins

July 11, 2022

In our last letter, we reviewed the recent quarter and provided a structural view of the market.

In a tape as messy as this, we're focusing a good portion of our strategy on longer time frames. The market has been and continues to be a mess on shorter time frames, while equity markets still firmly reflect risk-off behavior.

With the market providing extreme readings, these are conditions by which we can anticipate a mean-reversion rally higher. At the same time, trying to catch this move in a period of continual whipsaws will be difficult.

 

 

Chart of the Day: Get To Work

July 11, 2022

The market has work to do.

We've been in a Bear Market since February of 2021 when stocks peaked. Since then it's been a slow deterioration ultimately hitting almost every sector, with some areas just getting absolutely destroyed.

But just to keep it simple, the bottom line is we're below overhead supply in almost every case. There are exceptions, but I think the S&P500 shows what's really going on for the average and median stock or sector.

This is a top, and price is below former support:

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Young Aristocrats (July 2022)

July 11, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats.

In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.”

Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical...

Dow Reality > Dow Theory

July 10, 2022

You hear people talk about Dow Theory all the time don't you?

What you might not know is that there's a lot more to Dow Theory than you think.

In fact, that whole DJ Industrials & Transports confirming or diverging from one another is not even in my top 5 most important Dow Theory Tenets.

You can read about what's actually important about Dow Theory here. Give it a read and then ...

Second City, Redux.

July 9, 2022

I’ve written in the past about how I had been invited to join a local Improv Comedy group here in Colorado for a one-off show back in May.

While this may sound random, I do actually have some professional improv training. I took a year of classes at Chicago’s famous Second City Theater and then a couple more sessions at Improv Olympic (also in Chicago) back in 2006. It was just for fun. I had no illusions of ever becoming an actor of any kind.

Well, the show I was invited to participate in back in May went off without a hitch. We played in front of a sold-out room (it only seats 110 people) and by all accounts, it was a fantastic success. For me personally, I was just happy I didn’t suck! LOL!

We were eventually invited to come back again and I was once again asked to participate.

Chart of the Day: Healthcare Profits

July 9, 2022

When you look at as many charts as I do, you quickly start to notice when certain charts just don't look like most of the others.

Healthcare is one of those.

We discussed it all on this week's Live Conference Call. Premium Members click here to watch and download the slides.

And if you're not a Premium Member yet, just give us a call and we'll set you up: (323) 421-7910

The Healthcare conversation we're having is a really important one. Notice how with S&Ps, Nasdaq and other major indexes breaking down and completing tops, Healthcare has just traded sideways.

We call this, "Relative Strength":

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Buying a Bounce in Natural Gas

July 8, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Don’t let the numbers fool you.

Despite positive returns at the index level for Q2, commodities have been in full retreat for the past month or more. We broke the damage down in last week’s post.

However you want to slice it, commodities are under increased selling pressure. The strongest areas aren’t breaking out; they’re trying to hold support.

That’s simply how raw materials are performing in the current environment. Yet we’re still finding levels we want to trade against from the long side.

Believe it or not, one of these situations is popping up in one of our favorite energy contracts…

Natty gas!

Here’s a weekly continuation chart of natural gas futures:

After completing a monster 14-year base in April, it reached our initial target of 9.05 in less than two...

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International Hall of Famers (07-08-2022)

July 8, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...