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Chart of the Day: Thrust Hunting Season

July 16, 2022

If you've been following along over the years, you've heard me mention plenty of times that breadth thrusts tend to cluster together early on in market uptrends.

Well, a funny thing happened yesterday - we had our first 9-to-1 up volume day on the NYSE since May.

To quote Willie"Stringing 2 of these together without an intervening 9-to-1 down day would be a very positive development".

Here's what that looks like:

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Where Will Bears Strike Next?

July 15, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sellers are in the driver's seat when it comes to commodities these days.

Besides natural gas and livestock contracts, few commodities present buying opportunities that we like. In reality, most have either broken down or are on the verge of breaking down. 

As the latest bout of selling pressure shows little signs of easing, we’re likely to experience more damage in the coming days and weeks.

Copper, one of the most economically sensitive and widely followed commodities in the world, is a great example of recent weakness. It can’t stop falling.

Given the downside volatility raw materials have experienced since the start of the summer, many trends are stretched. We don’t want to be too bearish here. We want to let the dust settle.

With that said, it’s hard not to imagine where the bears will strike next.

And when we scroll through our charts, it looks like they have crude oil in their sights.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s a chart of crude...

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The Hall of Famers (07-15-2022)

July 15, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it:

Filter out any stocks that are below their May 10th 2021 high, which is when new 52-week highs peaked for the S...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

July 15, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 index is 20% off its early 2022 high, but remains nearly 14% above its pre-COVID peak. The median stock in the index, however, is now trading just below its pre-COVID high. The last several years have been an experience of tremendous volatility with no upside progress for the median stock. The numbers are even more startling among mid-caps and small-caps. Both the mid-cap S&P 400 and small-cap S&P 600 are nearly 10% above their pre-COVID peaks, but the median mid-cap stock is 10% below its pre-COVID high and the median small-cap stock is 20% below its pre-COVID high. This brings us to commodities. The median commodity is 30% below its high, but remains 20% above its pre-COVID peak. Whether it’s stocks or commodities (or bonds for that matter) there is plenty of volatility in the current environment. The volatility in commodities is in the context of an underlying up-trend. With the median stock in the S&P 500 returning to its pre-COVID high (and the Value Line Geometric Index where it was in 2018), it’s been an unrewarding roller coaster ride for stocks. 

...

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[Options Premium] Bullish Life Insurance

July 15, 2022

That's a blog post title I never thought I'd write. LOL.

Even more strange, the trade we're putting on today is in a public company with an unusual name I've never heard of before!

Weird times, indeed.

Steve Strazza and I looked at it a bit on Tuesday during our "Flow Show" on twitter and I was less than enthusiastic at the time. But as the trade has marinated around my brain a little bit since then, it has grown on me.

 

"Show Me" Time For Bitcoin & Ethereum

July 15, 2022

The US Dollar took a little break from going up yesterday, and that has continued a bit this morning.

A funny thing happens when the Dollar isn't ripping - stocks and crypto prices are able to rise....

Today is Crypto Fridays around here at Allstarcharts.

We start with our 7AM meeting with the whole Crypto Team going over everything from the major trends, to new coins popping up on our screens, or the latest from the private world of defi and web 3.

Then at 10AM ET we hold our weekly Crypto Strategy session for Members of ASC Crypto.

[Call +1 (323) 421-7910 to access ASC Crypto Trade Ideas and Reports]

In addition to all of this, I like to schedule my "Crypto" type meetings to...

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Evidence of a Butterfly? Yes. Of a Bull Market? Not So Much.

July 14, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I'm watching a butterfly emerge from a chrysalis.

Literally.

I’m not conjuring a metaphor. This is happening in real life… in a jar on my desk.

A few weeks back, I found some Black Swallowtail caterpillars in my dill patch. I collected several, provided a steady supply of fresh dill, and watched them grow big and plump.

Eventually, they attached themselves to a stick, shed their caterpillar skins and have spent the last couple of weeks undergoing an amazing metamorphosis inside their chrysalis.

Reorganization complete, they are now emerging anew.