Key Takeaway:

• Fed in spotlight as Powell & Co move rates to last cycle’s peak.
• A dovish pivot when financial stress has never been lower seems unlikely.
• Persistent bear market leaves bulls needing to prove their case.

While high relative to the previous decade, the Fed could in 2019 at least make the argument that inflation and wage growth were low from a historical perspective. Additionally there was evidence that financial stresses were starting to build. Now, the wage and price pressures that were still incubating in 2019 have erupted to their highest levels in decades while at the same time the financial stress has never been lower (according to the St. Louis Fed’s index).

The market has currently priced in another 100 basis points of tightening over the final three FOMC meetings this year (September, November, December). There is some expectation that Powell will use his post-FOMC press...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was positive as 83% of our list closed higher with a median return of 1.79%.
• High Beta $SPHB was the winner, closing with a 6.14% gain.
• The biggest loser was the Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -14.18 %.
• There was a 2% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 4%.
• 45% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• Meanwhile,...

Ok, maybe that title is a little dramatic. I couldn't help myself. I recently had a conversation with a trader friend who was dunking on Gold Bugs about the lack of income stream from Gold. It's just a damn rock! he said.

Anyway, I don't have any strong opinions about Gold either way. I just like to follow price and volatility. And right now, the options market may be offering us a tempting opportunity to collect some premium as the recent gold selloff has spooked the gold bulls a little bit.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We closed a position for a profit in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Last week, we advocated again for a patient approach.

We remain cautious about buying too heavily into short-term breakouts. This is a tape where whipsaws and fake-outs can be anticipated.

Many names find themselves firmly below overhead supply, and we expect any short-term strength to be aggressively sold into.

In the depths of this most recent drawdown, market participants were approaching their maximum pain thresholds. It makes sense that the market finds supply from holders looking to break even on their losses.

There are two ways to approach this tape from a trading perspective:

We’ve seen very little insider activity the past few weeks and today is no different, as we have just a single Form 4 on our Hot List.

This lack of interest is reflected in the ratio of insider sells to insider buys, which just hit its highest level since early 2021.

This to me is the big one.

The chart below is the one I'm watching the closest.

You guys have been hearing me pound the table about the US Dollar and what a hard time stocks and crypto will (continue to) have in a stronger Dollar environment.

So here you have it. This is the Emerging Markets ETF $CEW back to the same level where it bottomed out the only 2 other times it was ever down here:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

I remember 2010-2011 like it was yesterday.

Precious metals were all the rage.

Silver miners were the meme stocks of their day.

There was so much money being made in Silver.

And then all that changed.

No one has heard from those silver surfers ever again.

And now here we are watching the Silver ETF $SLV close the week at its lowest price in history relative to the S&P500:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks have rallied off of their mid-June lows, but it goes without saying that 2022 has still been a year marked by volatility and an absence of strength. In fact it has been historic (or nearly so) on both accounts. In terms of volatility, only two years (2008 and 2002) finished with a higher percentage of days on which the S&P 500 closed up or down by 1% or more than we have seen so far in 2022 (just shy of 50%). No year has come close to as low a percentage of days with more new highs than new lows. So far we have had seven in 2022: two in January, three in March and one each in April and May. That is just 5% of the trading days so far this year. The next closest year was 2008, which had new highs > new lows on just 13% of the days. At the opposite extreme is 2017, regarded by many as one of the best years in stock market history. That year, 90% of the days saw more stocks making new highs than new lows, only 3% of the days had the S&P 500 moving by more than 1%, and the S&P 500 booked a nearly 20% gain.

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