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[Options Premium] Going International

March 21, 2022

Trading opportunities aren't limited to just U.S.-based corporations. And thanks to ADRs, we don't have to go to other foreign exchanges to exploit opportunities in different countries. These companies have tracking shares -- often with tremendous liquidity -- on our exchanges here.

One such opportunity, with a big base that is showing signs of resolving higher, recently appeared in our International Hall of Famers report last week.

Altimeter Capital Buys Large Stake in Confluent

March 21, 2022

The highlight of today’s list is the Altimeter Capital Form 4, which revealed a $7 million purchase in the mid-cap software stock Confluent $CFLT.

Altimeter now owns 5,131,700 shares of CFLT.

There was also a significant Form 4 filing by Sequoia Capital’s Roelof Botha, detailing a purchase in the diagnostics and research company Natera $NTRA.

Botha purchased roughly $5 million of NTRA stock, bringing his total share count to over 1.3 million.

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Breadth Thrusts?

March 19, 2022

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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Rocks Are Ready To Rip!

March 18, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley 

Gold looks like it’s ready to run.

The largest gold miner in the world, Newmont Mining Corp. $NEM, has broken out of a multi-year base.

Silver and platinum have dug in at critical support levels and are catching higher.

And, most importantly, gold is in the process of reclaiming its former all-time highs from summer 2020.

These are all bullish developments, suggesting gold -- and precious metals more broadly -- are ready to join in on the party that most commodities have been enjoying for more than a year.

Last month, gold broke above its former 2011 highs near 1,924. Here’s a zoomed-out view of the chart:

Now that we are back above this key peak from the previous commodity supercycle, it’s time to bet on a fresh leg higher for the shiny metal. 

Seeing gold push back above its prior cycle highs and begin to participate is incredibly constructive for the...

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International Hall of Famers (03-18-2022)

March 18, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

March 18, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The FOMC meeting is out of the way and the quiet period for Fed speakers that preceded it has ended. We are now getting a barrage of “how we got it wrong” inflation retrospectives and “how we can get it right” policy tightening perspectives from Federal Reserve Presidents and Governors. A proper understanding of both of these helps explain the path we’ve traveled and what might lay ahead. While labor supply crunches and supply chain disruptions have played their part, the Fed seems to have forgotten Milton Friedman’s famous quote: “Inflation is always & everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” Money supply rose 25% in 2020 and another 13% in 2021. The Fed’s balance sheet expanded by 78% in 2020 and another 18% in 2021. Inflation soared and has proven not to be transitory in large part because these liquidity increases have persisted. If the Fed is going to get ahead of inflation, it will have to stop blaming exogenous factors and focus on the instruments over which it has some control. And Financial assets will have...

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[Options Premium] Have We Seen the Bottom in Biotech?

March 18, 2022

Is that a dead cat bounce in the Biotech ETF $XBI that will quickly fade? Or is this week's hard pivot off the $80 level the new floor?

I don't know the definitive answer, but the bet I'm going to make is that $80 will hold at least for a few weeks. If it does and as long as $XBI doesn't overshoot on the upside from here, I think this ETF is offering us a great opportunity to sell some premium here.

So let's get into how I'd like to play it.

Options Traders Love Commodity Stocks

March 18, 2022

We’ve talked a lot about the unusual options activity in commodity stocks like Freeport-McMoRan $FCX in recent weeks and months. 

Yesterday, we saw more of the same, as options traders made some major splashes in April monthly calls for both the oil services giant Schlumberger $SLB and the British integrated oil and gas name Shell Plc $SHEL.

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts - Catching Up With The Fed

March 17, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

To the surprise of no one, the Federal Reserve voted to raise its target fed funds rate at yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The 25 basis-point rate hike was fully priced into the futures market. There was only one dissenting vote – St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard expressed a preference for a 50 basis point hike at this meeting. 

I’ll admit I was surprised that neither Esther George (from the Kansas City Fed) or Loretta Mester (from the Cleveland Fed) joined Bullard in his dissent. At the end of the day, the Fed is now in tightening mode, and the pace of tightening is likely to pick up over the course of the year between the combined effects of interest rate hikes and balance sheet drawdowns.

I’m not going to parse the FOMC statement, dissect the dot plot, or break down the summary economic projections. Much of what needs to be said (and a lot of what didn’t need to be said) about the Fed’s decision has been offered in print, over the airwaves, and in our virtual communities...