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Assessing Risk With Aussie/Yen

March 15, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

For more than a year, most of the market and many of our risk ratios have been a trendless mess.

High Beta vs. Low Volatility, Copper vs. Gold, and our custom Risk-On vs. Risk-Off ratio have all gone nowhere since the beginning of 2021.

The Australian dollar/Japanese yen also falls into the range-bound category, as the risk-on pair looks a lot like the ratios we just mentioned.

But AUD/JPY has been showing resilience the past few weeks and is currently challenging the upper bounds of its multi-month range.

Since most risk appetite indicators aren’t giving us much in the form of new information these days, an upside resolution from AUD/JPY would be a major development. 

It hasn’t happened yet, but things are certainly setting up that way.

In today’s post, we’ll dive into one of our favorite risk-on/risk-off gauges – the AUD/JPY cross - and discuss what it’s currently suggesting about risk-seeking behavior.

Here's a dual-pane chart of the AUD/JPY pair and copper futures:  

...

[PLUS] Weekly Market Perspectives - Risk Off Reigns

March 15, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

  • Range-O-Meter points to Risk Off environment
  • Risk On index remains stalled, Risk Off components gaining strength 
  • Use breadth thrusts as guide that Risk On appetites have returned

The headlines remain noisy, but the message of the market is one of risk off leadership. Our Risk Off - Risk On Range-O-Meter shows the risk off component in most of these asset pairs gaining strength. Of the 20 pairs displayed here, only three (Value vs Growth, Aussie Dollar vs Yen, Lumber vs Gold) have the risk on component anywhere near new relative highs. In more than half the cases, the risk off component is within 10% of its highest level in the past year. This pair-wise intermarket view confirms the message from our Weight of the Evidence dashboard that argues for caution as conditions have deteriorated. The rest of this piece puts the current readings from this range-o-meter into some historical context and...

All Star Charts Crypto

Nothing Exciting Is Happening

March 15, 2022

What's the best crypto trade on the books right now?

For us, it's been pretty simple.

While everything else has been a complete mess, there's been one name that's really stood out on all of our scans.

You know what I'm about to say...

 

 

Gabelli's GAMCO Stays Active

March 15, 2022

Abdiel Capital filed a Form 4 yesterday revealing a purchase of an additional 105,500 shares in the software company Appian Corp $APPN.

The firm also made a large purchase in February in the amount of roughly $6.5 million. It now owns nearly 6 million shares of APPN, representing an ownership stake of approximately 14%.

Another software stock, Shift4 Payments $FOUR, had insider activity reported, as the chairman of the board and CEO, Jared Isaacman, filed a Form 4 revealing a purchase worth approximately $1.7 million. 

Isaacman now owns 334,742 shares of FOUR.

[Premium] Trade Of The Week

March 15, 2022

Price trends have been a tad bit clear in the week gone by and some of that has translated to new trade ideas. This week we're looking at a name from the Consumer Durables sector.

Let's take a look at the trade for this week!

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The Minor Leaguers (03-14-2022)

March 14, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps…

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1B and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we did this is simple…

To make the cut for our new Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1B and $4B.

And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component–it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and...

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Follow the Flow (03-14-2022)

March 14, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to...

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

March 14, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It has an ominous name, but not much of a signal. The so-called “Death Cross” occurs when the 50-day average closes below the 200-day average. Today, for the 25th time since 1970, that will happen for the S&P 500. This table shows both where the S&P 500 tends to be in relation to its peak when these Death Crosses have occurred in the past and the experience of the index in the wake of past crosses.

In aggregate, forward returns following Death Crosses are not meaningfully different from any random day in the market over the past 50 years. This is more noise than news and these crosses mostly reflect an index that has pulled back from its peak. The S&P 500 is currently 13% below its January peak, which puts the current Death Cross in line with the historical pattern. The relationship between the 50-day average and the 200-day average describes an environment but is not likely to shape the path going forward.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

March 14, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

False Start of Failed Breakout?

The markets have been a bifurcated mess for more than a year now. During this time the relative strength from commodities and commodity-related stocks has stood out. Both have been on a tear and continue to rip higher. But despite the broad strength in commodities, Copper has gone nowhere since many risk assets peaked in May of last year.

That changed last week when Copper printed fresh all-time highs. Those new highs were short-lived though, as price quickly slipped back within its prior range. So was last week’s move in Copper a false start or a failed breakout? As any good technician, we want to err in the direction of the underlying trend, which is higher. But, we need to see prices agree before we have any conviction. For now, we want to remain patient and look to the key risk ratios and the bond market for clues to Copper’s next directional move. The direction in which...

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

March 14, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

  • Our macro universe was red this week, with 85% of our list closing lower with a median return of -1.95%.
  • This week, US 10-Year Yield $TNX was the winner, closing with a massive 16.24% gain.
  • The biggest loser was Copper $HG, with a weekly loss of -6.35%.
  • There was an 11% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 19%.
  • 13% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs,...

Mixed Signals Suggest More Mess

March 14, 2022

We've been overly obnoxious with our tone of mostly staying out of the Crypto market and playing defense.

There's been so little to discuss and so few actionable trades that our priority right now is waiting for reliable signals to suggest a resolution from this trading range.

Price action in most crypto assets is still range-bound. It appears 46,000 is the critical level for bulls to reclaim.

There are many mixed signals, so we have no read on current price action as of the writing of this report.