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All Star Options

[Options Premium] Steeling for a Rally

March 14, 2022

In light of global events, we're seeing significant market reactions all over the place. And it seems like the narrative changes on a daily basis. Now more then ever, as a Trader, is it important to turn off the news and follow price. Price doesn't lie.

One trend that has been signficant and showing no signs of stopping is the bullish breakouts we're seeing in energy, commodities, and materials.

And today's name is one of the bellwethers in the space that is beginning to breakout from a multi-year base.

Buffett Adds More OXY

March 14, 2022

In today’s action, there was a large inside purchase reported by Sequoia Capital in the food delivery company DoorDash $DASH.

Sequoia has been a long-time investor in the stock.

In other insider purchases, Durable Capital Partners reported a buy worth roughly $5 million in Duolingo $DUOL.

And an Ambarella $AMBA director disclosed a purchase of just over $1 million in his company’s stock.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A also disclosed more buying in Occidental Petroleum $OXY.

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Sentiment Unwinding

March 12, 2022

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

The Outperformers

March 12, 2022

We debuted a new scan recently- The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.

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Will Copper Join the Party?

March 11, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities have been on a tear, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index recently posting its best week since 1970 and the CRB Index rallying more than 25% year to date.

Despite the broad strength from commodities, Dr. Copper – a key economic barometer – has yet to break out like so many of its peers. 

After making a new all-time high last Friday, buyers were unable to sustain the move, and price retreated into its former range.

While it’s great to see so many other contracts trending higher, bulls really need to see copper join the mix. If this is truly a new commodity supercycle, it better break out from this consolidation. 

It is that important to the overall asset class.

Let’s break down the various technical scenarios for copper’s recent move and discuss what they mean for the entire space.

First, the move could have been a premature breakout:

We also call...

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[Options Premium] Utilities Offering Nice Premium

March 11, 2022

The hunt for options premiums to sell continues. And with VIX showing signs that it might want to give up the 30 level for a little bit, we may have the trend of implied volatility mean-reversion beginning to become a wind in our sails.

A quick perusal of the most liquid ETFs options markets that I follow revealed a surprising sector at the top of the list: Utilities. And the recent price action suggests to me we may have seen the $XLU ETF get a bit ahead of itself, and it could be due for a little consolidation.

 

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The Hall of Famers (03-11-2022)

March 11, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that, which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

And here’s how we arrived at it:

  • We filter out any stocks that are below their May 10, 2021 high, which is when new 52-week highs peaked for the S&P 500.
  • ...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

March 11, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks attempted to rally this week. Following Tuesday’s abortive attempt to regain the considerable ground lost on Monday, the S&P 500 posted its best daily gain since 2020 on Wednesday (+2.65). The S&P 500 is still down on the week as I write this, but if the right headlines cross the wire this afternoon, anything could happen. That’s the kind of environment we are in. One filled with plenty of day-to-day noise. Stepping back, the S&P 500 attempted to rally off the lows in both January and February as well. Then, lower highs were ultimately followed by lower lows. The consistent theme as the indexes have moved lower off of their early year highs has been weakness beneath the surface. The number of stocks making new lows has been persistently higher than the number of stocks making new highs. When that changes, and we see evidence of meaningful improvement in breadth, we can take a more constructive view of rally attempts. For they deserve skepticism. Let’s make it a mantra (or at least a T-shirt): “No Thrust? No Trust!”  

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More of a Mess

March 11, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Sideways has been the theme for most risk assets since they peaked in the first half of last year. Markets have become increasingly messy in the time since.

If we’re talking about US equities, the market is as bifurcated as it’s been in years.

All we mean by this is that depending on what group a stock is in, it could be in a nice uptrend, but it could also be in an ugly downtrend. Stocks and other risk assets are literally moving in opposite directions these days, and doing so with some serious momentum.

At the index level, you can see this split market reflected by trendless ranges. 

When we look to our risk-appetite ratios and indicators for information, we’re not getting much as the vast majority are still stuck in the same ranges they’ve been in for the better part of 12-months.

So, risk assets are a mess and most of our risk indicators are also a mess. Makes sense, right?

Let’s...